MyDD :: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana

ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana

by Vox Populi, Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 02:30:54 PM EST

Cross-posted from Blue Indiana. Come join us!

The American Research Group (ARG) released a poll today taken April 2-3 that shows Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama by a 53-44 margin. The poll has a 4% margin of error.

The results nearly mirror a poll released earlier this week by polling firm Survey USA, which showed Clinton in the lead with a 52-43 margin. It runs in contrast to a poll by Research 2000 which shows a much closer race, with Clinton ahead 49-46.

The ARG poll has Clinton as the favorite of Democratic voters, whereas Obama is preferred by the overwhelming majority of independents, who are eligible to vote in Indiana's Democratic primary. There are no cross-tabs or regional breakdown available at this time.

Indiana
Likely Democratic Primary Voters Apr 2-3

Clinton 53%
Obama 44%
Someone else 1%
Undecided 2%

Indiana
Likely Democratic Primary Voters
Democrats (78%) Independents (22%)

Clinton 59% 31%
Obama 38% 64%
Someone else 1% -
Undecided 2% 5%

I expect to see a lot more of both senators in the near future.

Tags: Indiana, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama (all tags)

Permalink :: 32 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana (2.00 / 1)

Those numbers sound right.

But know this: I'm a close poll watcher, and I know a few people in the business, and we've all come to the conclusion that ARG literally makes their numbers up.

by Mostly on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 02:36:42 PM EST

Re: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana (2.00 / 2)

I typically agree with you, but their results mirror Survey USA, which is well-regarded.

The sharpest criticism often goes hand in hand with the deepest idealism and love of country. ~RFK

by Vox Populi on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 02:39:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana (2.00 / 1)

That's what i meant by "that sounds right".

by Mostly on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 03:14:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana (2.00 / 1)

seeing how mostly your post mostly are 'just made up' I for one will take your words with a ton of salt...

by zerosumgame on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 02:51:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana (1.50 / 4)

I've never seen a post where you're not starting a fight. That's seriously all you do - weak one liners that don't contribute to anything.

Quit yapping at my ankles.

by Mostly on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 03:13:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana (none / 0)

so you calling a bunch of people you do not know liars is being reasonable and all sweetness and light to you? yeah, you're a troll.

by zerosumgame on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 12:44:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana (none / 0)

i hope you can give fair on the ground reporting .

i assume you are in indiana.

would be nice if you can give some commentary with the race their .

rallies etc

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 02:44:26 PM EST

Re: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana (none / 0)

I'm in Indiana, and Obama was here for only the second time. Like the first visit, two weeks ago, t was another one rally and gone thing, which, oddly, he skipped out on the Memphis tribute to MLK that both Hillary and McCain attended. Hillary has been here and traveled all over the state, and Bill and Chelsea have been all over as well. They are winning the ground war.

Obama has blanketed the airwaves with commercials. I mean, literally, almost every commercial break during the news. Frankly, this will not win him votes because Hoosiers become very annoyed with that kind of campaigning. If it keeps up for the next four weeks, I'm going to start Tivoing the news, so I can fast forward through it.

I attended a rally for Hillary last weekend on the west side of Indianapolis. You can read about it on my blog.

-----------
Blog: http://fitnessnerd.blogspot.com/

by FitnessNerd on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 09:47:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana (none / 0)

eh 9% sounds about right, which aint bad, Obama is not campaigning heavily yet in Indiana and his numbers can only go up.

hmmm even if hillary does take the state, a 5% win does nothing for her in terms of popular vote and delegates.

so after Indiana Obama's popular vote lead is all but assured.

Congratulations to Barack Obama, the presumptive Presumptive Democratic Nominee

by TruthMatters on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 02:44:38 PM EST

Re: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana (2.00 / 0)

not really .

there are more states to come and you have no idea how that would turn out , do you ?

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 02:47:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana (none / 0)

You're correct...things could still shake out for Clinton, but as they are now, she still needs decisive wins in the remaining states. Not for "momentum" reasons, but simply because she needs to close the popular vote gap if that's going to be one of her arguments to the SDs.

But we'll see what happens. She's looking good here, unfortunately for us Obamians.

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 03:32:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana (none / 0)

Obama's internals have him winning Indiana by 7% which I believe and him winning everything else except for West Virginia and Kentucky.

by regina1983 on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 03:21:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana (none / 0)

where did you get the internals information from?

by American1989 on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 03:52:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana (2.00 / 0)

this is ARG, one of the most unrealiable pollsters, along with Insider Advantage, PPP and Rasmussen. I trust SurveyUSA!

by American1989 on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 02:55:46 PM EST

Re: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana (none / 0)

Right, but this poll mirrors the SUSA poll from a few days ago.

The sharpest criticism often goes hand in hand with the deepest idealism and love of country. ~RFK

by Vox Populi on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 02:59:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana (1.00 / 1)

Survey USA has been spot on in almost every race. I did an analysis of them for a campaign class I'm taking for my master's, and their record this year i s superior. They absolutely nailed Ohio, Missouri and California.

I will vote for Barack, I will vote for Hillary, I will vote for Obaminton or Clintobama, how about you?

by AnyDem2008 on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 04:01:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana (none / 0)

great news, thanks

TexasDarlin blog

by TexasDarlin on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 03:05:55 PM EST

Re: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana (none / 0)

Indeed. It is great that there's a baseline to judge what happens in Indiana. We now know how much Sen. Clinton leads by now, and will be able to determine whether she increases her lead, maintains her lead, or whether Sen. Obama cuts into her lead and by how much.

Of course, somehow this information was deemed not relevant after Sen. Clinton's 20 point Texas lead turned into a 4 point primary victory. Hopefully, the media will report the whole story this time, not just the parts that favor one candidate.

John McCain: Healthcare for Kids? In America? No way

by bosdcla14 on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 03:29:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana (none / 0)

Looks like Indiana is going to be seeing the candidates more often. What did you think of Obama's speech in Indiana today?

by Spanky on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 03:18:21 PM EST

Hi Vox! (none / 0)

Nice, informative diary.

by TomP on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 03:24:04 PM EST

Re: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana (1.00 / 0)

so except NC all other remaining states will go for Hillary? This is a very good reason to demand that she will drop out.
Add to this Florida (be seated) and Michigan (will be seated).
It is clear why people like Leahy & Kerry whining and asking Hillary to drop out - because Obama CANNOT WIN.
I heard it before...

Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties

by engels on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 03:28:07 PM EST

Re: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana (none / 0)

Well, all other states except for Oregon, Montana and South Dakota.

So if this poll holds, she'll win 4, he'll win 4. Yup, he's already lost the race.

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 03:35:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana (none / 0)

Oregon, Montana and South Dakota

No polls from those yet, and they could be close.

by Jerome Armstrong on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 04:10:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana (none / 0)

The Clintons are very unpopular in both Montana and South Dakota, especially in Montana after Bill tried to raise grazing fees in the 1990's.

by Toddwell on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 04:36:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana (none / 0)

i said many times: since Oregon, Montana and South Dakota is closed primaries (no friken caucuses, no GOP/indpendent games with OPEN primaries)
she will win those 3 states too. Especially when Obama cannot count on racially motivated voters.

Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties

by engels on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 05:51:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana (none / 0)

Especially when Obama cannot count on racially motivated voters.

Huh?

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 06:23:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana (none / 0)

I have heard contrary on the S.D. and Montana contests. These are primary states not caucuses, and some pundits and prognosticators are predicting that HC will do well in these two states. Voters here are much more conservative in their thinking, which would also favor her.

Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News

by steve468 on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 09:16:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana (none / 0)

Okay, so then if he wins those, they'll be labeled "insignificant" or explained away as some trick of favorable demographics. We know how this works. Caucuses don't count. Open primaries don't count. Closed primaries where there's too large a concentration of African-Americans don't count. Red-state primaries don't count. so on and so forth.

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 01:08:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana (none / 0)

Uh, not so much. Try Oregon and MT, if nothing else, for Obama.

FL and MI will not be seated in the form that they are currently in - Obama can prevent that from happening all day long if he likes. They'll get seated, but only once he's secured the nomination.

by Cycloptichorn on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 03:36:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana (none / 0)

Michigan and Florida will not be seated in proportion to a race that Clinton herself said "really means nothing".

by Toddwell on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 04:35:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ARG Poll: Hillary Leads by 9 in Indiana (none / 0)

Where are the promised tax returns. I don't really care but please stop promising then to release them soon Hillary.

by afr114 on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 03:53:40 PM EST

ARGGGGG!!!! (none / 0)

by Skaje on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 06:59:27 PM EST

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